X-risk

What is existential risk?

Existential risk (often abbreviated as x-risk) refers to threats that could cause human extinction, permanently destroy humanity's potential for future development, or otherwise cause an irreversible collapse of human civilization. These risks are distinguished from other catastrophes by their global and terminal nature—they threaten not just current lives but the entire future of humanity. The concept encompasses both natural threats that have existed throughout human history and emerging dangers created by advancing technology and human activity.

Why should we care about existential risks?

The ethical importance of addressing existential risks stems from their unprecedented scale and the vast future potential at stake. If humanity survives and flourishes, countless future generations could experience lives of meaning and well-being. This represents an enormous amount of potential value that would be permanently lost if an existential catastrophe occurs. Even if we assign just a small probability to these scenarios, their expected negative impact is immense given what's at stake—not just current lives but potentially trillions of future lives and all human achievement. This perspective frames existential risk reduction as potentially one of the most important moral priorities of our time.

What are the major categories of existential risks?

Existential risks span several major categories. Nuclear warfare remains a significant threat, with thousands of weapons still deployed worldwide. Engineered pandemics pose growing concerns as biotechnology advances make it easier to create or modify dangerous pathogens. Artificial intelligence presents unique challenges if advanced systems develop goals misaligned with human welfare or safety. Climate change could potentially trigger catastrophic feedback loops or destabilize global systems beyond recovery. Other technological risks include nanotechnology accidents and as-yet-unknown emerging technologies. Natural threats like supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts, while less likely in any given century, remain persistent background risks throughout human history.

How do experts assess and prioritize existential risks?

Experts evaluate existential risks through frameworks that consider their probability, potential impact, and tractability. Risk assessment typically involves identifying specific scenarios, estimating their likelihood based on available evidence, and projecting consequences across different timeframes. Prioritization often weighs factors like neglectedness (how many resources are already addressing the risk), timing (how soon the risk might materialize), and uncertainty (how confident we can be in our assessments). Different methodologies may emphasize quantitative approaches using expected value calculations or more qualitative considerations about governance challenges and cascading effects between different risk categories.

What can individuals and organizations do to reduce existential risks?

Practical approaches to reducing existential risks operate at multiple levels. Research institutions can advance our understanding of specific threats and develop technical solutions. Policy advocacy can strengthen international cooperation on risk management and create governance frameworks for emerging technologies. Institutional safeguards might include monitoring systems for early detection of threats, redundant critical infrastructure, and improved decision-making processes during crises. Individuals can contribute through career choices in relevant fields, supporting organizations working on these issues, raising awareness, and promoting long-term thinking in public discourse. Building societal resilience through improved coordination and decision-making capabilities may help address many risks simultaneously.